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Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Will Voting Demographics Shift in 2018?

In the last 18 months, approval of President Trump among African Americans has risen from 8% to 21% according to a poll done for the NAACP.  The head of the NAACP points to 79% disapproval, but that misses the point.  For the first time in decades, there's a Republican in the White House who is getting more popular with blacks as his term progresses.  Twenty-one percent approval may not sound like much, but if 21% of blacks vote Republican this coming November, the Democrats' chances of retaking either the House or Senate go up in smoke.  Democrats can win only with nearly unanimous support from blacks.  Even more interesting is that Trump's approval among Hispanics is likewise climbing.  Here too, he hasn't reached majority approval, but he's not all that far away from it.

The question of the moment is whether or not approval of the job Trump is doing will translate into votes for the GOP this November.  Indeed, it doesn't even have to lead to many black votes for Republicans.  If blacks and Hispanics satisfied with the way things are going just stay home and do not vote, the likely outcome again is a GOP victory overall.

There's a reason why the media made such a big deal out of that march by 20 or so Nazi/KKK types in DC last weekend.  It was supposed to drive home to the minorities in this country that Trump is an irredeemable racist.  He didn't organize the march, attend the march or do anything other than condemn it, but for the media, that doesn't matter.  If racists are marching, it is because of Trump.  Without a doubt, the mainstream media must have been distraught that less than two dozen crazies showed up for the "march".  They couldn't even show pictures of the "crowd" because it made the whole event look sillier than it actually was.

This is also why we are now seeing the media melting down because Omarosa has a tape in which people in the Trump campaign discuss what to do IF there's a tape of Trump using the n word.  There is no such tape, but they were getting ready in case one surfaced.  This is hardly proof that Trump is racist, but that doesn't matter.

Between now and November, the appeals from the Dems and the media which label Trump and the GOP as racist or anti-Hispanic are going to multiply.  It's a problem for the Dems.  They have to try to motivate the minorities to come out and vote Democrat.  If they push too hard, however, they will alienate the whites who would otherwise vote Democrat but who may have voted GOP in the past.  These are people who won't like being told that they were racist for doing so.  I guess if you live by calling people racist, you also can dies by calling people racist. 

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